Basketball Betting

Line of Scrimmage: Your Guide to the 2010 NFL Season

Football Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two summers from now, you'll be reading - or perhaps choosing to disregard - this piece at least one week earlier.

Given the forceful recent rhetoric emanating from NFL commissioner Roger Goodell and the group of owners that grace him with his job, you can pretty much bet that an 18-game regular season will be a done deal by 2012. Oh, the league will pay lip service to the notion of the union having its say, but the NFL's business model is driven not by the wishes of the players who face the crackback blocks, but by the consumers who fill the stadiums and drive the TV ratings.

And the consumers have said this: things that matter are better than things that do not matter, and regular season games are better than preseason games. They're right ... to an extent. I don't know if two extra regular season contests will really make the NFL 11.1 percent more awesome, but I do know that the four-game preseason is an unnecessary albatross for a league that cares deeply about its P.R. profile.

The preseason is your nephew's seventh-grade jazz band opening up for Metallica. One's an obligation. The other is music.

Adding two games is going to force the league to a) start the meaningful schedule earlier, b) end it later, or c) both. My best guess, here in the first week of September 2010, is that it will be choice c, with Week 1 happening on Labor Day weekend (as it did from 1978 to 1998) and the Super Bowl being played on the second Sunday in February.

Sorry, Winter Olympics. Every four years you might have a couple fewer viewers for the women's biathlon preliminaries. Collateral damage can be an ugly thing.

Some Chicken Little types are bemoaning the start of the season on a holiday weekend, but whatever. People watch the NFL and attend its games on Thanksgiving weekend, Christmas weekend, and New Year's weekend if the schedule dictates. Everyone is off Labor Day anyway, so the Sunday afternoon parties only promise to be more festive.

There has also been a bit of hubbub about the possibility of a higher quotient of late-season games carrying less meaning, i.e. the Colts owning a six-game lead on the rest of the AFC South with four more games to play. That situation is not completely avoidable, so make sure you draft a good fantasy backup for Peyton Manning. Or Brett Favre, who will still be playing in 2012. The bigger picture says that even when some teams have postseason bids locked up, others around the league will have meaningful games to hold fans' attention. The NFL is not high school football ... the vast majority of supporters care about what's going on outside their own town.

The only negative variable in all of this, when it comes right down it, is the physical demands on the players. There is absolutely no solution to the problem that says guys who are already beat to hell by early December are going to be hamburger meat by early January. Expanded rosters, practice squads, and possible developmental leagues are not real answers, unless you think the Chargers are going to call a couple of o-linemen up from the minors for a critical late-season battle with the Broncos. Not going to happen, ever. The best players in the game are going to be expected to play four quarters every week for 18 weeks.

But the players are over a barrel on this one, because the fans want more football, the owners want the two meaningful games of extra revenue, and the owners and networks will probably find enough money to pass on to the players so that they'll sign off on something they have no real power to stop anyway. The quality of play might depreciate a little, but not enough for anyone to notice as they enjoy an afternoon bratwurst for an 18th consecutive Sunday.

Time marches on, for better or for worse, and two years from now the NFL season will be different in a super-sized kind of way.

The NFL's second-to-last 16-game season isn't quite the end of the innocence, though the end of an era is knocking on the door.

Below are all of The Sportsbook Betting Lines's unsolicited predictions, awards, and trends for the NFL's 91st season, beginning with our projected league standings. Full preseason previews of all 32 league teams are available at:

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page= nfl/previews/2010/index.aspx

NFC EAST

Dallas (11-5) Washington (10-6) N.Y. Giants (8-8) Philadelphia (6-10)

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans (11-5) Atlanta (10-6) Carolina (5-11) Tampa Bay (4-12)

NFC NORTH

Green Bay (12-4) Minnesota (11-5) Detroit (6-10) Chicago (5-11)

NFC WEST

San Francisco (10-6) Seattle (7-9) Arizona (6-10) St. Louis (5-11)

NFC Wild Card Round: Vikings over 49ers, Cowboys over Falcons NFC Divisional Round: Packers over Vikings, Cowboys over Saints NFC Championship: Packers over Cowboys

AFC EAST

N.Y. Jets (10-6) Miami (9-7) New England (9-7) Buffalo (3-13)

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis (12-4) Houston (10-6) Tennessee (8-8) Jacksonville (5-11)

AFC NORTH

Baltimore (11-5) Pittsburgh (10-6) Cincinnati (8-8) Cleveland (6-10)

AFC WEST

San Diego (11-5) Kansas City (6-10) Oakland (6-10) Denver (5-11)

AFC Wild Card Round: Chargers over Steelers, Texans over Jets AFC Divisional Round: Colts over Texans, Ravens over Chargers AFC Championship: Colts over Ravens Super Bowl XLV: Colts over Packers

NFL AWARDS

Most Valuable Player: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Willis, San Francisco Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ryan Mathews, San Diego Defensive Rookie of the Year: Rolando McClain, Oakland Coach of the Year: Mike Singletary, San Francisco Comeback Player of the Year: Leon Washington, Seattle

BREAKOUT PLAYER

Arian Foster, Texans. As former undrafted free agents with six career NFL appearances go, Foster is a pretty well-known guy. But his Q rating should take an additional leap this season, in which the Tennessee product is expected to be the feature back on a Houston offense that should rank among the most dynamic in the league. Foster outplayed the fumble-prone Steve Slaton throughout training camp, and his path was cleared to an even greater degree when second-round draft pick Ben Tate went down for the year with a broken ankle. If he has the kind of year expected of him in the Texans attack, Foster could make both Slaton and Tate obsolete.

BREAKDOWN PLAYER

Brett Favre, Vikings. Kind of bold predicting a guy who has started 312 consecutive games is going to break down, isn't it? Yeah, but not really. Favre turns 41 on October 10th, and with his ankle problems added to the laundry list of body parts that will hurt him when he wakes up on Monday mornings this fall, the odds of the venerable one making it all the way through a full season (for the 18th straight time) are as long as they've ever been. Which means two words that make every Vikings fan cringe: Tarvaris Jackson.

FIRST-ROUND FANTASY PICK YOU'LL REGRET

DeAngelo Williams, Panthers. Williams may not have been a first-round fantasy pick across the board, with Jonathan Stewart's 2009 ascent giving some owners pause about his first-round viability, but with 2,600-plus yards and 27 touchdowns over the past two seasons combined, Williams was still an attractive pick. Too bad, because anyone who's seen the Panthers offense during the preseason can reasonably assume that this team is going to have major trouble moving the ball in 2010, which in turn means fewer touches, and touchdowns, for both Williams and Stewart.

UNDRAFTED FANTASY PLAYER YOU'LL PICK UP

Laurent Robinson, Rams. Robinson was elevated to No. 1 receiver status when Donnie Avery was lost for the year with a torn ACL last week, and although no one will confuse him with Torry Holt or Isaac Bruce, count on Robinson being a big-time help to those who employ him for fantasy purposes. Call this the "Anquan Boldin in 2003" factor, whereby a receiver on a bad team picks up a lot of garbage-time points late in games when defenses are sitting on their heels. Robinson has 55 career catches and 656 yards in three NFL years entering 2010, numbers that should look a lot different when '10 draws to a close.

FIRST UNEMPLOYED QUARTERBACK TO FIND WORK IN 2010

Josh McCown. Sorry, JaMarcus Russell and Jeff Garcia. Whatever team finds itself looking for a stop-gap QB due to an early- or mid-season injury is much more likely to turn to someone like McCown than a developmental player like Russell or someone like Garcia or Daunte Culpepper who comes in with expectations about his role. McCown, who has 31 NFL starts on his resume', already resisted advances from the Chicago Bears last month in order to continue with the UFL Hartford Colonials, but might be willing to go somewhere where he'd have a chance to compete for a job long-term.

FIRST UNEMPLOYED RUNNING BACK TO FIND WORK IN 2010

Derrick Ward. Ward has undergone a free-fall since topping the 1,000-yard mark with the Giants in 2008, failing to make it even to final cuts with the horrid Buccaneers amid concerns about his work ethic and passion for the game. Ward is 30 but has relatively low mileage on the odometer (456 career carries) and is just two years removed from a 2008 campaign in which he averaged a league- leading 5.6 yards per carry. You have to believe that once this guy gets his head on straight, he can help someone.

FIRST STARTING QUARTERBACK TO LOSE HIS JOB IN 2010

Trent Edwards, Bills. Edwards has clearly been the best of the Bills' four quarterbacks during the 2010 preseason, but a combination of Buffalo's taxing early-season schedule and the Bills' porous offensive line and receiving corps is bound to be his undoing. After starting out at home with a seemingly winnable game against the Dolphins, Buffalo goes to Green Bay (9/19) and New England (9/26) before returning home to face the Jets (10/3). By the time the Bills reach the Jacksonville game on Oct. 10th, look for Ryan Fitzpatrick or Brian Brohm to be taking the first-team snaps.

TEAM THAT REALLY WILL BE THAT GOOD

Packers. It's impossible to talk about Green Bay's dazzling preseason display without mentioning that, yes, it is only the preseason. That said, it's not like the Packers have come out of nowhere during the warm-up period. This team was 7-1 over the second half of last year, with the only loss a 37-36 nail- biter against the Steelers, and returns just about everyone from an offense that has found its groove behind Aaron Rodgers and a defense that was top five against both the run and the pass last year. Don't be surprised if Green Bay is 6-0 going into what could be a very telling game against the Vikings at Lambeau Field on Oct. 24th.

TEAM THAT WILL BE BETTER THAN EXPECTED

Steelers. Strange that a team with an NFL-best six Super Bowl titles would be taken lightly, but the disappointing non-playoff year of 2009, the suspension hanging over the head of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the perceived strength of the AFC North rival Ravens and Bengals has some pundits dismissing Pittsburgh. Bad move. This organization hasn't missed the postseason in back- to-back years since 1999-2000 and still possesses the talent - particularly on defense - to be a major factor in the AFC. The Black and Gold will be no worse than 2-2 when Big Ben returns from his exile, and will really hit their stride when the weather turns colder in December.

TEAM THAT WON'T BE AS GOOD AS EXPECTED

Bengals. On paper, Cincinnati is better than the team that swept both the Ravens and Steelers and was a surprise AFC North champion a year ago. But the role of hunted has never suited the Bengals, who have made back-to-back postseason appearances just once in their history (1981-82) and have perhaps added a little too much gunpowder (Terrell Owens, Pacman Jones) to their already combustible locker room arsenal (Chad Ochocinco, Cedric Benson, Roy Williams). Plus, another 6-0 run in the AFC North is highly unlikely, and the out-of-division schedule (Patriots, Falcons, Colts, Jets, Saints, Chargers) looks mighty daunting.

TEAM THAT WILL BE GOOD, BUT NOT THAT GOOD

Jets. Many are expecting the Jets' run to the AFC Championship last year to serve as a launching pad for 2010, but let's remember that this team needed two disinterested opponents and a weak AFC field just to get into the playoffs at 9-7 last year. There is plenty of talent here and Rex Ryan might be the best coach the Jets have had since Bill Parcells, but are we really expecting a team led by the still-developing Mark Sanchez to come out ahead of those led by Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers at the end of the year? I'm not.

TEAM THAT WILL BE BAD, BUT NOT THAT BAD

Browns. The light came on for Cleveland late last year, when a stunning upset of the Steelers sparked a four-game season-ending winning streak that saved Eric Mangini's job. Then, in the offseason, the Browns picked up perhaps their most legitimate starting NFL quarterback of the "new Browns" era (Jake Delhomme), also enhancing the defense via a trade for Sheldon Brown and selection of cornerback Joe Haden (Florida) and safety T.J. Ward (Oregon) in the draft. If the AFC North wasn't so stacked this year, you could make a case for the Browns being a surprise playoff contender. As it is, they'll be a tough out, at the very least.

TEAM THAT REALLY WILL BE THAT BAD

Buccaneers. The Bucs organization has been steadfast in refuting the allegations that they're operating on the cheap due to financial problems in the Glazer family, but even if they're telling the truth, there is not much argument to be made that this team will be better than in its 3-13 campaign of 2009. There are some young and promising players on the roster (Josh Freeman, Gerald McCoy, Aqib Talib), but not nearly enough of them to make a difference against the Saints or anyone else in the NFC South, for that matter. It is truly hard to imagine Raheem Morris lasting to see a third year in Tampa.

LEADING TEAM IN THE JAKE LOCKER SWEEPSTAKES

Bills. Locker, the University of Washington star, might not turn out to be the most highly-touted available quarterback when the Draft rolls around next spring, but you can bet that the Bills will be in the market for whoever fits that description. It is difficult to envision Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick or Brian Brohm making enough of a case to lead this team into the future for Buffalo to resist taking a QB, and their probable draft position next spring should help them do just that.

LEADING TEAM IN THE MARK INGRAM SWEEPSTAKES:

Buccaneers. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner figures to come out of college after his junior season of 2010, and will no doubt have one of the highest profiles of the incoming class. Ingram has an NFL pedigree (his father, Mark, played wide receiver for 10 years in the league) and has faced tough enough competition in the SEC to step immediately into a pro lineup. The Bucs, who will select early in 2011 and should be just about ready to move on from Cadillac Williams, look like a good fit for Ingram.

FIRST-YEAR HEAD COACH WITH A SHOT

Mike Shanahan, Redskins. Shanahan won't have things easy in his first run through the NFC East, especially given the degree of roster turnover the Skins are dealing with coupled with the installation of new offensive and defensive systems. But Shanahan knows his way around veteran players, and there should be enough guys motivated to succeed on this roster to make a run in the direction of the playoffs a distinct possibility. If Shanahan can squeeze high-level efforts out of Donovan McNabb, Clinton Portis, Albert Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall, Washington could be on to something.

FIRST-YEAR HEAD COACH WITH NO SHOT

Chan Gailey, Bills. Ten years after he was run out of Dallas, perspective (and Dave Campo) tells us that Gailey (18-16 in two years) might not have been such a bad coach after all. But being run out of three jobs in the last decade (Cowboys and Georgia Tech head coach, Chiefs offensive coordinator) does not suggest to Bills fans that they have the next Marv Levy on their hands, and neither should the team's roster. Gailey might squeeze out a couple of wins here, but this is the fourth-best team in the AFC East by a country mile.

COACH WHO NEEDS TO WIN, AND WILL

Wade Phillips, Cowboys. Phillips will essentially be on a series of one-year contracts unless and until he wins the Super Bowl, and if Dallas fails to deliver on the promise that Jerry Jones expects to translate into a Super Sunday appearance this February, Phillips' ouster would not be a surprise. But let's remember that Phillips became the first Dallas coach since Barry Switzer to win a postseason game last year, and another run into the general vicinity of the Super Bowl should be enough to bring Bum's son back for 2011. Bet on the talented Cowboys getting close enough to preserve Phillips' status.

COACH WHO NEEDS TO WIN, AND WON'T

Lovie Smith, Bears. It is quite revealing that Smith and Bears had major trouble filling the vacant offensive coordinator job, which eventually went to Mike Martz just about by default, during the offseason. More recently, the team couldn't persuade Josh McCown, Damon Huard or Trent Green to join the roster as a backup QB, eventually settling for Todd Collins. The translation on both counts is that this is a sinking ship, and the captain Smith looks certain to go down with it. The once-proud defense is a shell of its former self, and Martz isn't going to be able to turn around Jay Cutler and the offense in one year's time.

BEST PRIMETIME GAME

Vikings at Packers, Oct. 24th. The two best teams in the NFC might just reside in the same division, and the balance of power in the North figures to hinge greatly on this Sunday night encounter at Lambeau Field. Brett Favre and the Vikings got the better of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in both 2009 matchups, but it is important to note that Green Bay was a much different, much better team after last facing the Purple in Week 8. Plus, this is supposed to be Favre's final game at Lambeau (like we believe that one), which I have a feeling we'll be hearing Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth bring up once or twice.

WORST PRIMETIME GAME

Titans at Jaguars, Oct. 18th. Think about what newly-monikered EverBank Field is going to look like in mid-October if Jacksonville is, say, 1-4 heading into this contest, which by the way does not include the Colts or the Steelers. Set the turnstile count over/under at about 15,000, and prepare to watch a three- hour testimonial on why Jacksonville cannot support an NFL team. And by the way, there are two intriguing teams in the AFC South this year, and this game manages to miss both of them.

PROGRESS MADE ON A NEW COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT FOUR MONTHS

None. The collective bargaining agreement between the NFL and the Player's Association expires in March 2011, and you can expect there to be no meaningful movement toward a new CBA until shortly before that drop-dead date. The owners want a smaller percentage of their revenues to go to the players side, the players want the owners to open their books and show them why that's necessary. Neither side is going to budge from that stance until both drivers in this game of chicken can see the whites of each other's eyes, and that day isn't not coming until March 2011, at the very least. Hopefully, before the whole thing is a mess of twisted steel, the smart people on both sides of the table will realize how much damage could be done to the world's most profitable sports league with a work stoppage. Hopefully.